Excellent article. I appreciate the background on the Rand Corporation. I do recall the Pentagon Papers and am glad you are reminding us of history we failed to learn from before.
I think Putin knows it's the end if he uses nuclear weapons--I suspect he wants to end this now but his pride and need to win won't let him.
I don't know the answer but if this keeps going and his people keep suffering I think there will be another Russian revolution. From what I've heard/read the economy there is never going to recover--and at some point the mothers of the dead soldiers will revolt.
In the end, I believe, it will be the Russian people that stop this madness. But then, I'm an optimist--so while I understand the need to prepare for the worst, I tend to put my energy toward imagining a best case scenario.