I think he will end up in jail, if he lives that long. He can't be trusted to behave even when threatened with jail so allowing him to remain free, even with an ankle bracelet, would be too damaging to the country.

They judges are not willing to stifle him entirely now, because his is running for office (presumptively). But once convicted, they will not need to be so careful. I think much of their unwillingness to be really tough on him now is because they know there will be appeals and they can't risk doing anything that might be used to claim they were overzealous in their prosecution of him.