There is a guy who has built a model for predicting the winner of US presidential elections. He's been right in the last 12. He lists all the factors you listed as well as others, and right now Biden would win based on his calculations.

He reminds us that polls are static and not predictive--and often wrong.

Also, someone on the Meidas Touch Network pointed out the other day that all the CEOs of mainstream media companies like CNN, MSNBC, CBS, WaPo and the Times are Trump donors. No wonder everybody keeps gaslighting us on how bad Trump is while trying to convince us that Biden is the problem.

Lastly, the left-wing in France surprised everybody as did the big win by Labour in the UK, but why? Why are so many of us still behaving as if fighting for a democratically-run governments is passe?

No matter how much evidence we get (including all the red states where abortion rights were on the ballot) that most people do not want right-wing autocrats, the media is still constantly surprised by every new instance of exactly what we've seen in every election since Trump was booted out of the Oval.